Betting on 2008

Pending wagers for the upcoming season.

I like to place a couple of simple wagers every year, and this year is no different.

My first one is the Mets to win the World Series. I made this wager pre-Santana so I have 15-1 odds.

Hanley Ramirez, Under 27.5 Home Runs. I don't expect Hanley to have as good a year as he had last year, as pitchers will figure him out a bit.

Mariano Rivera, Under 36.5 Saves. 37 is a lot of saves, and I think the Rivera is in decline, plus the Yankees with a shoddy bullpen and inning-limited young pitching are unlikely to give him as many opportunities in years past. I made this bet last year and won.

Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays, Over 75 wins. 76 is a lot of wins, would be a franchise record. I was hoping this number would be lower, but I still think they can do it. I think they're a better team pitching-wise this year, and the division is worse, if only by a little.

New York Yankees, Under 93.5 wins. From the Yankees perspective I think the division is about the same as last year, Tampa improved, Orioles downgraded, Boston and Toronto remained about the same. I won this bet last year(I think the number was 96) and I would've won it with 93.5 last year too. The Yankees didn't get better, in fact they got worse. (A-Rod and Posada won't do better, and they didn't acquire any new talent. Unless the young pitching blows everyone away, they're in for a tough year)

Philadelphia Phillies, Under 87.5 wins. Did the Phillies get better? I'm not a big fan of Myers anyway, I think Lidge doesn't give them much of an improvement. Just give the Mets two more wins against them and I'd win this. Philly will probably stick around though May and then fade. They just don't have any pitching.

New York Mets, over 93.5 wins. Can the Mets fight off their stagger last year, and does Johan add what it takes? I actually think the Mets will annihilate this number, because I think Johan and Pedro will have years that make us drool. I lost this bet last year, when the number was 89.5, which I thought was practically a given.

So there are my bets for this year, I may add others if I see them, I'd love to bet on over strikeouts for Pedro, but I didn't see one anywhere. Anyone else make any wagers, or think I'm crazy on any of these?

A-Rod and Joe Torre

The New York Yankees, as is typical of their history, again act without class in firing Joe Torre. A move that I am really happy about, because I think it opens the door for the Yankees to not make the playoffs next year. If Mariano, Pettite, Posada or/and A-Rod decide to use the manager change as an excuse to leave for another team, the Yankees will take a blow. Hopefully at least one of them leaves.

As for A-Rod, I expect it won't be all about the money this time. He was willing to take some sort of pay cut to go to Boston. Only the greed of the players association kept him from going there. Maybe he'll overlook getting 900million dollars this time and take merely 800million to go somewhere that he'll be happy and have a chance to win. How much Joe Torre effects that, it's hard to say. Likely Mariano and Posada could have made a decision by the time A-Rod does.

In my last article at totk.com, I talk about A-Rod's impending pay day and how he's probably worth it. Hopefully someone else realizes this and takes him away from the Yankees. The former 'Bronx Bombers' used to have both the single season, and all-time home run records, but now they have neither. Babe Ruth was still probably the best slugger ever, but now his curse is focused on them. A-Rod leaving would pretty much prevent the Yankees from making an attempt at either record for a long time. Losing the best player in baseball could only hurt a team.

A team that payed Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano for pretty much nothing worthwhile this season, were supposedly upset about giving Torre an extra couple of million dollars, and now they're stuck looking for an option that has a prayer at living up to what Torre has done for the team. Likewise by not extending Rivera's contract before the season started like he wanted, they're risking letting him get away. There shouldn't have been any doubt that Rivera would be wanted on the team beyond this year, but someone that makes the decisions decided it wasn't worth paying the guy who may very well be the most valuable Yankee over the last 12 years.

Things look like they could be bleak in the future for the Yankees, just how I like them.