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Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Betting on 2008

Pending wagers for the upcoming season.

I like to place a couple of simple wagers every year, and this year is no different.

My first one is the Mets to win the World Series. I made this wager pre-Santana so I have 15-1 odds.

Hanley Ramirez, Under 27.5 Home Runs. I don't expect Hanley to have as good a year as he had last year, as pitchers will figure him out a bit.

Mariano Rivera, Under 36.5 Saves. 37 is a lot of saves, and I think the Rivera is in decline, plus the Yankees with a shoddy bullpen and inning-limited young pitching are unlikely to give him as many opportunities in years past. I made this bet last year and won.

Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays, Over 75 wins. 76 is a lot of wins, would be a franchise record. I was hoping this number would be lower, but I still think they can do it. I think they're a better team pitching-wise this year, and the division is worse, if only by a little.

New York Yankees, Under 93.5 wins. From the Yankees perspective I think the division is about the same as last year, Tampa improved, Orioles downgraded, Boston and Toronto remained about the same. I won this bet last year(I think the number was 96) and I would've won it with 93.5 last year too. The Yankees didn't get better, in fact they got worse. (A-Rod and Posada won't do better, and they didn't acquire any new talent. Unless the young pitching blows everyone away, they're in for a tough year)

Philadelphia Phillies, Under 87.5 wins. Did the Phillies get better? I'm not a big fan of Myers anyway, I think Lidge doesn't give them much of an improvement. Just give the Mets two more wins against them and I'd win this. Philly will probably stick around though May and then fade. They just don't have any pitching.

New York Mets, over 93.5 wins. Can the Mets fight off their stagger last year, and does Johan add what it takes? I actually think the Mets will annihilate this number, because I think Johan and Pedro will have years that make us drool. I lost this bet last year, when the number was 89.5, which I thought was practically a given.

So there are my bets for this year, I may add others if I see them, I'd love to bet on over strikeouts for Pedro, but I didn't see one anywhere. Anyone else make any wagers, or think I'm crazy on any of these?

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